SOCIAL 4

From CFI

DATE

Jan 28, 2005

RESEARCHER

Jason Bradford

QUESTION

What are the population projections of local government?

ASSUMPTIONS

Local government includes the City of Willits as well as the County of Mendocino.

ANSWER

At the county level, the Mendocino Area Council of Governments (MCOG), which is primarily a transportation planning agency, is given a growth projection from the state. The state mandates that each county develop a Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP). MCOG tells incorporated municipalities their portion of this growth, local authorities consider the ramifications for housing and associated infrastructure and send this information back to the county and the state. If cities do not develop a RHNP they may loose state funds for Community Development Block Grants (HCD) that subsidize low and moderate housing construction or rehab.

Mendocino County had a population of 86,265 in 2000 according to the US Census, compared to 80,345 in 1990, for an annual rate gain of 0.7%. MCOG projects: 98,000 by 2005, 105,225 by 2010 and 118,800 by 2020 (Pacific Municipal Consultants, 2004). Between 2000 and 2020, this averages out to a growth rate of 1.6% (see calculations in Sources).

For the City of Willits, population projections only extend as far as 2020 (Pacific Municipal Consultants, 2004). No long-term upper limit is set for either an ideal or the potential population given possible constraining factors such as water supply.

The range of annual growth rates projected between 1992 and 2020 in the Willits General Plan is between 1.0% and 2.5% (Ref General Plan). Since 1980, actual growth rates have ranged from just over 2.5% to possible annual declines. For example, from 1990 to 2000 the U.S. Census reports a gain of less than 50 people (5027 to 5073), and, though no official estimate exists, Willits may have lost population since 2000 (Falleri, 2005). Therefore, in Table HE-5 of the 2003-2008 Housing Element (Pacific Municipal Consultants, 2004) official projections and reality are clearly incongruent. Namely, while Willits may have actually lost population since 2000, the expected growth trend between 2000-2005 is 2.6%, yielding 5732 by this year. Growth-promoting factors identified in the General Plan, such as water availability, highway construction, and regional economic growth, are clearly not as robust as previously forecast (Ref General Plan).

The average long-term forecast for growth in the county, and, by extrapolation, the Willits area, is 1.6% per year. Although official estimates extend only through 2020, there appears to be no official discussion of an upper limit to growth. However, if we extrapolate growth long enough into the future it becomes clear that an endpoint must occur at sometime. For example, a 1.6% growth rate until 2100 would give over 427,000 people in the county, and by 2375 Mendocino county would have as many people as currently exist in all of California (ca. 35 million).

It may be politically difficult for local governments to plan for a no-growth policy when state government promotes a "fair share" of their projected growth. Planning for growth, and placing the required infrastructure for it can be a self-fullfilling task, however. If the Willits government and their constituents would prefer that the town remain small, it may mean saying no to certain state funds. The other option may be to remain officially open to growth, while finding legitimate funding and resource constraints that make it impossible to obtain, such as water. The later strategy may be the unofficial policy. The situation with water in Brooktrails provides a clear example of how population projections that do not consider environmental and resource factors are certainly going to be wrong.

SOURCES

Alan R. Falleri (2005). Community Development Director, City of Willits. 707-459-7124. arf@willitscity.com. Personal Communication, Jan. 28.

Pacific Municipal Consultants (2004). City of Willits Housing Element 2003-2008. Update of the General Plan. Adopted March 24, 2004 by the City Council.

Mendocino Council of Governments (MCOG) http://www.mendocinocog.org/

General Plan for Willits. Adopted Aug. 12, 1992. Need full reference.

Growth rate calculation.

Nt = Noert

118,800 = 86,265 er20

118,800/86,265 = er20

r = ln 1.377/20 = 0.016 or 1.6% per year given t = 20 years.