Willits Economic Localization/Archive Of Major Bulk Email From Jason

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Dec. 17, 2004. Dear Willits, Great meeting again last night!

Here is our web site: http://www.cloudforest.org/wiki.pl?Willits_Economic_Localization

Some of our research is now available there, and those of you wanting to get your work on the site can look and see how to do it. Contact me if you want me to walk you through this process the first time.

I know many couldn't make it last night who had questions from their group. Well don't despair! Go to the web site above and share what you've done.

Also, others have told me that they have missed the last few meetings and are starting to feel "out of the loop." You can still do a great service by reviewing the material we are researching and even proposing and answering your own questions. Then when you come to the next meeting you will be ready to go! Newcomers should not feel that far behind either. We are still early in the process and it should be easy to catch up.

I want to make sure everyone is clear on what the process is right now. We are not currently promoting any particular project. Many folks have specific ideas about "What we should do" or "Solutions." It is not time to debate these in detail yet. The current focus is on asking a series of questions so we can understand (1) current realities and (2) what the scale of needs would be with a localized, sustainable economy.

For example, we may study how many kilowatts of electricity are currently in use and how we get this (1), and then compare this to some minimal, desired amount for critical services (2). Once we establish this "frame" we can start talking about what the alternative, locally supplied sources might be that don't rely on fossil fuels.

My impression so far is that Study Groups differ in how closely they have followed these guidelines. I want to impress upon everyone that we have a process for a reason and that we need to make sure we stick to it. If we don't, conversations will go round and round and end up nowhere. The Steering Committee will meet to discuss how to make each Study Group more effective.

If you are one of those wanting to join the Steering Committee, please send me an email letting me know. I will then make a list of potential members and we can plan for a meeting. Sometime between Dec. 27 and 31 should be our first gathering.

Thanks to all of you for making Willits such a great place to be, and I wish you a peaceful holiday season.

Jason

Dec. 15, 2004.

Agenda for Dec. 16th meeting on Willits Economic Localization

15 minutes--Introductory comments Why asking these questions causes anxiety. Current question that governs our society “How can a profit be made?” contrasts starkly with all the truly important questions we are asking. Realizing this is a bit scary because it explodes the myths of security and progress sold to us by the dominant society. But I ask that we commit to this process. It is hard work, but what worthwhile isn’t? And in the end, we will all have a greater appreciation for the forces that govern our lives. The understanding itself is cathartic, and in the long run may determine the quality and duration of our lives. Expect emotional vacillations and talk about them with others.

This process will evolve. We are going through primarily an “information-gathering” phase intended to ground us in the realities around us. After this, we will move to a “visioning” phase that maps out how we’d like to transition towards a localized, sustainable economy.

Role of Facilitator and group dynamics. If you are a facilitator, remember that your job is to keep the group focused on the process. This is not about any particular agenda you have, but making sure everyone in the group has a voice. Prevent dominance. Encourage patience. We have a range of experience levels here. If you feel way ahead of the crowd, please be kind and become a mentor rather than a dictator. Most of what you want to accomplish may depend upon your relationships with the people in this room.

Get to know each other in the groups. Perhaps begin with your name and a couple sentences about why you are here. State your name each time you speak. We will also have new people each week, so this may be a good habit for a while.

Donation box. The school charges $90 each time we convene here. So a dollar or two in the box from each of us can cover this.

Collecting the questions. We need a computer savvy person from each group to help us gather all the Q&As in a common format. Place on web site.

80 minutes--Break into Study Groups Same as last time (Food, Energy, Water, Shelter, Health and Medicine, Community Farm/Ecovillage) plus Transportation. If you want to do Transportation and have Q&A documents, please drop off with the other group first. Need a Facilitator, Timekeeper and Note Taker for each group plus a Collector for the Q&As (can have one of the other roles as well).

Suggested format for Study Groups: 10 minutes: Introductions, why you are here 20 minutes: Reports on research 20 minutes: Discuss progress, refine and reformulate questions as needed 15 minutes: Ask for any new questions 10 minutes: Edit new questions, ask for volunteers to research 5 minutes: Elicit feedback on this process

End of Suburbia is also showing.

45 minutes--Reassemble 30 minutes: Study Group reports--just the highlights 15 minutes: Steering Committee (during off weeks, facilitator training, plan main meetings and symposium, make them pot luck affairs at my place). Symposium, make this something the Steering Committee discusses in depth and proposes. Next meeting (week of Jan 3rd).

End and mingle....

Dec. 2, 2004 Dear Willits, The next Economic Localization meeting is Monday, Dec. 6 from 7 to 9:30 pm at the Willits Charter School. So far, these gatherings have been loosely organized, but that is going to change a bit. We've hit critical mass for doing some serious work and this requires a level of knowledge regarding group facilitation, strategic planning, etc., that goes beyond my experience. Happily, some helpful folks sought me, and we've developed a plan for the meetings.

This format is not set in stone, but we will try the following for the next event and see how it goes:

7 to 8:25 Viewing of End of Suburbia for newcomers.

7 to 8:25 For those ready to start planning: Introduction to the Study Group process. This week we will focus on gathering questions about both our current situation and where we would like to be. Groups will divide responsibility for gathering answers to those questions. Asking and then answering these questions will act as a "frame" for our vision of transition.

Break into the following Study Groups: Food, Energy, Shelter, Water, Community Farm/Ecovillage, Health & Medicine (other groups in subsequent weeks).

8:30 to 9 All convene and have Study Groups report their questions to everyone and possibly receive new questions from the broader audience (keep answers to yourselves for now!).

9 to 9:20 General questions about the film. Open discussion.

9:20 to end Mingle, talk to each other, share ideas, plan to meet between meetings, check out books, etc.

What we need from you Please bring your own note taking materials. If you have a white board, easel, and flipchart please bring to share with a Study Group. We'd like each study group to have designated facilitators, time keepers and notetakers. These jobs can rotate, but please consider one of these positions for Monday. Think of questions now and bring them to the meeting.

If you have books or films you'd like to share, you may bring them and we will have a check out table.

For Monday, I will provide an example of a question and the format for an answer. We want to do this in a way that allows people to evaluate our assumptions, our sources, and see the logical flow of our response. But remember, Monday is about gathering the questions only. Answering these is the "homework."

In case you missed it... Els Cooperrider interviewed Richard Heinberg last week and now the show is available from Global Public Media. http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/richard_heinberg_on_kzyxs_the_partys_over

This Monday I will be Els' guest on http://www.kzyx.org from 9 to 10 am.

I very much look forward to Monday night. Each event gets better and this one should be especially good. We have an opportunity to create some wonderful hope together while still remaining grounded in the difficult realities around us.

Cheers, Jason

Nov. 18, 2004 Dear Friends, I have been creating a Web site that we can use to help organize information, ideas and questions. It is at the Cloud Forest Institute's server, http://www.cloudforest.org

And here's the specific address for our group:

http://www.cloudforest.org/wiki.pl?Willits_Economic_Localization

You can navigate to this page by going through the "Sustainable Northern California Links" and then our link is under the heading "Individual Activists or listserves."

When you go there, you will see a page with the title "Willits Economic Localization" and then a series of links below. The nifty part comes when you look at the bottom menu bar. See "Edit text of this page." What this means is that any of you can help create this web site. I've just gotten us started and now you should feel free to chime in.

For instructions on how to use this feature (called a Wiki), please see the bottom of the Cloud Forest Institute home page under "About this site..." Believe me, it is very easy. If you want to make a new web page that is linked from an existing one, simply place double brackets around the text. For example, if you want to start a page about Community Gardens from within the Food page, hit the "Edit text of this page" button and then wherever logical insert Community Gardens. After you save the change you can open this new page and start adding content.

Now about the meeting on Tue. While the film is showing for newcomers, those of you ready to start planning can meet in a separate part of the cafeteria. For now we will keep the number of groups small until we are comfortable with how to plan and have specific topics that a number of people want to focus on.

So the 3 main groups will be: Food Water Energy

Please bring something to take notes with, especially if you've told me you are willing to help with a particular study group. We can post the notes on the Wiki web site.

Of course if you are aching to talk about something in particular feel free to draw attention to yourself and gather a crowd. Otherwise, think about how your particular interests would fit in with the above groups.

If you look at our web site, I have done some more detailed work on two pages, "Visioning the Localization Process" and "Food." I am going to paste below the contents of the former to give those of you who want to come prepared with information my suggestion of how to go about making the linkages and considering the appropriate scale.

Begin paste: Visioning the Localization Process

We need to put hard numbers on what we need to accomplish. I will use the data from the section on Food as an example. If we currently get 99% of our food from long distance transport and need to replace this with 100% local food in 20 years, how much land needs to go into local production between now and 2025? (If you want to know why I pick 2025, look at the work of Meadows et al. "Limits to Growth" and Gever et al. "Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades." <http://www.oilcrisis.com/beyondoil/>). Let's use 2000 acres of local food production as our goal and assume we have an insignificant amount in production now. That would require 100 acres per year of transition. This figure can be broken down into three categories: (1) Yard Gardens, (2) Community Gardens, and (3) Farms. The easiest way to start this process would be using Yard Gardens because this requires only personal initiative and low capital costs, but we need to be realistic about how much area can actually be used in this approach. Let me assume that the average number of people per home in the Willits region is 4, giving a housing stock of 2500 units (would be great to check all these assumptions!). Let me also assume that only half of these are suitable for Yard Gardens due to, e.g., size, soil and shading issues. I will also assume that the average available area per suitable site is 600 sq ft. Now the simple math. 600 sq ft x 1250 Yard Gardens = 750,000 sq ft/43,000 sq ft/acre = 17.5 acres. Given that we need about 2000 acres to feed a community of 10,000 people, this obviously won't cut it, but it is a great step to take and can teach a lot of people how to grow food in a short time period. Now let's do the same kind of calculation for Community Gardens. The Community Garden proposed for the area around the county offices in downtown Willits would have about 30,000 sq ft, or say 3/4 of an acre. Assume we get gardens of similar size at each school, i.e., Blosser, Brookside, Baechtel Grove, San Hedrin, Sherwood, Willits Charter, Willits High, New Horizons and Community Day. Let's also assume an equal number of offschool sites, perhaps at the edge of town and reclaiming some abandoned industrial sites. This would add up to perhaps 20 community gardens. If we put all of these into production we'd have a grand total of 15 acres by 2025. Altogether then, Yard Gardens and Community Gardens will only cover a small percentage of total community food needs. If the quick calculations done here are correct this works out to less than 2%. However, individual families or neighborhoods may be well situated to grow much higher proportions, or even all of their own food using such approaches, so I want to be clear that I am not trying to discourage their use. I believe they are vital and can be created quickly. Obviously, to feed the town, Community Farms are necessary. Over the next 20 years we need, on average, one farm per year of about 100 acres each to meet our basic food needs, assuming no change in population size. Does this provide some perspective on where we need to focus some of our energy? If we act with foresight, we should actually have an accelerated rate of change early in the process, such as 150 acres per year over the first 8 years. As energy becomes scarce, it becomes more difficult to make infrastructure changes (e.g., develop a new farm). The sooner we act, the more fossil fuels we will have available to invest in transporting necessary materials and equipment to make these farms work efficiently. Worried about jobs? Well, we will need plenty of people willing to "work for food." Absent fossil fuels, growing food is labor intensive. This is how most people actually survive, so don't feel it is something "exotic" or "impossible." Our current lifestyle is the bizzare one. Farming 2000 acres without mechanization would require at least 4000 people, and probably more, especially during peak planting and harvesting times. We could safely suggest that at least half the population needs to grow food. Historically, this figure is 60%-90% in agrarian societies. (See the work of David Pimental, "Food, Energy and Society"). Perhaps we will need modest mechanization as the labor force adjusts to new realities. Small tractors might be useful for a while, but it is hard to conceive of having a sustainable system with tractors. Other Resources. We need to make parallel calculations for water requirements and any associated energy requirements to produce this amount of food. Because food is so central to the function of a peaceful society, we can "hang" these minimal requirements on basic food needs. This is actually what classical economists used to do, before the discipline became overly enchanted with the now almost abstract concept of money.

End paste

Only a few of us are going to be "experts" at any of these topics. More important than experts, are people willing to ask the right questions and then figure out how to find the answer. I am a professional researcher so I am fairly comfortable with the "unknown." If you are organized, inquisitive, determined, and open minded, you would be perfect to help sort out what we need to know.

That's all for now. I have no volunteers yet for child care but my wife is willing to cover if we can't find anybody else. So feel free to bring young children and they will be watched and entertained.

Take Care, Jason

Nov 15, 2004 Hello Willits!

We have a place and time for the next showing of End of Suburbia and planning for localization.

Tuesday, November 23, 7 pm, Willits High School Cafeteria

The venue is large enough that we can have subgroups meet during the showing of the film. Please contact me if you'd like to lead discussion on a particular topic. After the film, we can convene for a general question and answer session and let the study groups share their insights and next steps.

I'd like to draw attention to some great new reports and interviews on http://www.globalpublicmedia.com

This one is a compilation of interviews on various experts on Peak Oil. http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/news/keacutellia_ramares_reports_on_peak_oil_on_pacific

This is a Democracy Now interview with a self described, CIA "Economic Hit Man." http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/john_perkins_execonomic_hit_man__on_democracy_now

Ukiah has a similar meeting Tuesday, November 16, 6 pm, Washington Mutual meeting room. Some of you may be interested in sharing ideas and supporting a neighboring town.

I'll send a reminder message before next Tuesday and hopefully have some specific information on the planned study topics, e.g., food, energy, water, community farm....

Finally, thank you Claudia Reed and the Willits News for reporting on our discussions thus far!

Cheers, Jason

Nov 9, 2004 Dear Friends, What a great meeting last night! I have expanded this list considerably and ask that you help get even more people to the next meeting by forwarding this message, talking to friends and family, and encouraging them to attend. I will let you know where it will be as soon as it is sorted out. Obviously somewhere with more space.

Also, we will change the format. Some people are ready to enter the "planning phase" and so I will make sure we have separate chambers for study groups to get together while the End of Suburbia is showing. These groups can join the discussion afterwards and perhaps present on their research and ideas.

Here are some web sites mentioned last night.

www.cloudforest.org Where you can learn about the "not so hungry hunger strike" and post to the "wiki" about topics we are concerned about. I will learn how to use the wiki to start a conversation about local food and report back on that.

www.growbiointensive.org This group has known that our fossil fuel intensive agriculture is dangerously misguided for decades and they have been developing techniques and local varieties of crops. Let's support them and ask for their guidance.

www.endofsuburbia.com To get copies of the film.

www.postcarbon.org Another way to get copies of the film as well as much information. See links to "Sister Sites."

www.drydipstick.com "a peak oil metadirectory"

For now I will leave you with some thoughts and experiences related to energy use. As I discussed, my recent research on climate change and biodiversity led me into the issue of energy availability. Here's an essay I wrote, and I am submitting it now to the Willits News editorial section, which is copied on this message.

The Climate Wrecking Ball

I am going to hire one guy with a wrecking ball to demolish my house, another guy to estimate the damages, and, after declaring bankruptcy, someone else to not only fix it, but make my house even better. Sounds crazy, but when you look carefully at all the issues interconnected with what is termed "climate change," that's essentially the scheme our society is engaged in. Let me explain.

The California Energy Commission has had the foresight to establish the California Climate Change Center (http://www.energy.ca.gov/global_climate_change/index.html) and recently organized a conference in Sacramento. I presented a poster at the conference and watched most of the proceedings. It was a surreal experience for me because the wrecking ball analogy came to mind. Here's a schizophrenic view of the next 100 years.

The "wrecking ball" is all of us. As a growing consumer population we are taking over natural habitats and polluting the atmosphere. Our big "house" is the planet Earth, and our own personal well being is intimately tied to the function of what scientists call the "biosphere." The food, raw materials, energy and steady climate we require to thrive is jeopardized by our own means of livelihood.

Some people "estimating the damages" to our house are climatologists, hydrologists and biologists. The presentations given during the conference were very sobering if not downright scary: loss of snow pack, redistribution of rainfall, summer-long heat waves, withering crops, rising sea levels and frequent storm surges that erode beaches and overwhelm levees in the Sacramento delta.

Now here's where it becomes comically surreal, in a tragic way. What happens to the population of California and our economic well being while our very life support systems are collapsing? The economists at the conference (all from the neoclassical tradition) told us this: we will grow our population from just over 30 million today to 60-90 million by 2100, and we will approximately triple our income. Multiply those population and income factors together and you get an approximate Gross Domestic Product growth of 600%-900%. Astounding! Absurd?

How can certain economists be so confident about "growth" when scientists are looking at "decline?" Even well-informed members of the public are rightly confused. But a close look at these economic models reveals their flaws. The environment and resources are "externalities" not incorporated into growth projections, which are simply extrapolations of historical trends.

Other economic traditions (such as ecological and biophysical economics) recognize that the trend for human economic and population growth is not preordained, but has been made possible by the natural wealth of the Earth--rich top soil, expansive forests, wide rivers, aquifers, concentrated mineral ores, and fossil fuels. As we deplete and degrade these resources, and pollute air, soil and water in the process, we undermine the basis for our own prosperity, and especially our children's.

While the horrific outputs from climate models were depressing, I was more disturbed by the denial I encountered while pointing out the contradictions described here. Some admonished me to "Have faith in technology," to which I wanted to reply, "So we should take a faith-based approach to science?" This kind of rhetoric is dangerous and only calls attention to the fact that the ones answering this way don't actually have any solutions.

In some private conversations several people (including a few within the California Energy Commission) admitted that the trouble is political. The changes required by society to slow down, reverse course even, and live within the budget allowed by the Earth are so great that seemingly no politician can speak of them. So I write to you, the public, and hope that "If the people will lead, the leaders will follow." Please learn what it means to live sustainably, and then follow the advice of Mahatma Gandhi: "We must become the change we want to see."

Note, the above essay is published at http://www.energybulletin.net/3179.html

Oct. 28, 2004

Dear Friends, This is my second message to those of you who came to the showing of "The End of Suburbia" at the WEC a couple weeks ago. I am copying this email to a list of WEC members with expressed interest in "community design and organic agriculture," as well as to a few others who couldn't make our first meeting.

I have set up a second meeting at the Willits Library on Monday, Nov. 8. I'll show "The End of Suburbia" at 7 pm, so feel free to arrive at 8:15 if you have already seen the film and just want to join the discussion.

Recommended Web Site In my previous message, I sent a couple of web sites on the subject of Peak Oil. Here's a great new one that calls itself a "metadirectory." Very thorough. http://www.drydipstick.com

Festival in San Francisco David Drell would like to attend the Green Festival on the weekend of Nov. 6. http://www.greenfestivals.com

This looks like a good opportunity to learn from others about some topics we are discussing, such as how to develop a local currency. Check out the web site and let David know if you are interested in carpooling with him. I would go, but am booked with the Ecology Action Workshop that weekend.

Little Lake Valley Property Growing food in Little Lake Valley is something I put at the top of my priority list. Therefore I've started looking at properties for sale with the help of Christopher Martin. If you would like to know about our next scheduled site visit and possibly join us, please email or call me.

Many members of WEC have expressed interest in creating a kind of "sustainable living" institute near town so it is visible to the whole community. As Ron Ornstein said at our last meeting, we have to go beyond talking about this and start making it happen. On that note, let me tell you about....

My Encounter with Forbes Last week Forbes published this article: <http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/2004/10/18/cx_da_1018topnews.html>

I posted this comment on the Forbes web site:

The idea that "nobody saw it coming" when refering to the rapid rise in oil prices is absolutely false. Many people saw it coming. The authors of "Limits to Growth" predicted this over 30 years ago. M. King Hubbert predicted this 50 years ago. Since the mid 80's to mid 90's, Colin Campbell, Jay Hanson, Cutler Cleveland, Robert Kaufman, John Gever, David Skole, Charles Vorosmarty, T. Boone Pickens, and many others saw this coming. Clearly written, peer reviewed papers in highly regarded academic journals predicted a rapid rise in oil prices in the first decade of the 21st century. Commodities traders reacting to price signals never seen long term trends, but geologists, systems ecologists and ecological economists knew all about it. Some are even making a lot of money right now because of it.

The next day, the same author published this:

<http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/2004/10/19/cx_da_1019topnews.html>

I was a bit nervous afterwards because while it is somewhat gratifying to see the mainstream media start to learn about resource depletion, I also know that the value of our currency and the stability of the financial system and equities markets in general depends upon confidence in future economic growth. Any widespread expectation of perpetual high oil prices could shatter that confidence and lead to a financial crisis. I'd rather we sort out what to do first but suspect we don't have much time!

Copy and Forward this Message Please give this message to anyone you think needs to be included in our discussions and plans. We had a great initial turnout but it is important to get more people involved.

Warm Regards,

Jason

Oct. 19, 2004 Hello everyone.

I want to thank you for a great meeting last night. It was wonderful to be among so many considerate and wise people.

As a first step to keeping us in communication, I have gathered all the emails and created this distribution list. If you would like to add anyone to this list please email me with their address at jcbradford@ucdavis.edu or forward this message to them and let them contact me.

There are many good web sites to visit regarding our discussion last night. Here are just a couple that emphasize doing something about the problem rather than just educating about it.

www.postcarbon.org (also check out their sister sites)

www.survivingpeakoil.com

Remember to talk to the Noyo!

And feel free to call or email me anytime, my full contact information is below.

Best Regards,

Jason

ps. If you'd like more background about me you may go to www.andesbiodiversity.org/ABC/abc.html

You may also be interested in a talk I gave for Earth Day this year in Chapel Hill NC www.coexploration.org/biodiversity/EarthDay2004.pdf